RPC

Where is Malaysia now in the property cycle? Is Malaysia in the final years of the upswing of the property cycle? How long more will the cycle remain robust? Malaysia property prices have been rising since 2010 fueled by easy credit, low interest rates and high demand on the back of strong economic fundamentals. The projected super cycle that will bust in 2012 did not happen. Prices continue to rise.

In the “Business and Real Estate Cycle: The Kuala Lumpur Office Market” by Siti Almafahaza, Stockholm, 2011 master thesis, the author described the development of Real Estate in Kuala Lumpur that has taken place since 1960’s and how it has changed into a modern city with the impact of industrialization of the economy. The study shows that real estate cycle and business cycle do move in recurring wave-like fluctuations that are in a circular motion.

For years it is interesting to note that property cycle comes and go and no one ever question it. It is so predictable and will happen automatically as in the pattern of day follows the night. Wikipedia described it as “A property cycle can be seen as a logical sequence of recurrent events reflected in demographic, economic and emotional factors that affect supply and demand for property subsequently influencing the property market.

In 1999, economist Andrew Lawrence created the skyscraper index; which purported to show that the building of the tallest skyscrapers is coincidental with business cycles, in that he found that the building of world’s tallest building is a good proxy for dating the onset of major economic downturns. Lawrence described his index as an unhealthy 100 year correlation. Do Skyscrapers Predict? Lawrence was apparently the first to make the claim that the construction of the world’s tallest building was correlated with impending financial crisis although the subject of the world’s tallest skyscrapers and their relation to economic crisis is also prominent in Grant (1996).

Should property investments be look from a bigger perspective instead of area or regional specific? Does the world events affect real estate market?. Relating to the wider perspectives will enable property investors to get important clues as to the demand and supply in the market and the sentiments therein and take precautions too on any pending crisis. As the whole wide world is on the internet and with advanced technology, all information is almost available to the seconds.